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Military (M): Part 1 - 2025 Predictive Analysis of US Interests Using the MIDLIFE Framework

Updated: 8 hours ago



As we move into 2025, the global and domestic security landscape reveals a dynamic mix of challenges and opportunities for the United States. This analysis introduces the MIDLIFE framework—Military, Information, Diplomacy, Law, Infrastructure, Finance, and Economic—as a strategic lens for predictive assessment. Each domain of MIDLIFE will be examined in detail through a series of articles, starting with the Military domain. Recognizing the government’s familiarity with the DIMEFIL framework (an alternative formulation of MIDLIFE), this approach aligns with established analytical methods used to assess operational and strategic conditions abroad. My focus for 2025 will not cover every possible topic but will prioritize key areas with the potential to significantly influence U.S. interests and security outcomes.


Military (M): Strategic Predictive Analysis for 2025

The Military domain encompasses foreign military threats, domestic military readiness, technological advancements, and the human elements of defense. Below is a detailed predictive analysis organized into key areas:


Foreign Military Threats

  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict

  • Prediction: Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered significant losses in manpower, equipment, and resources, leading to long-term financial challenges for both nations. President Trump will push to create a ceasefire within the first 100 days.  Russia has a stronger position in this area since Ukraine is dependent on western aid to help sustain the war effort.  Key elements of the negotiation will likely include military aid, reconstruction funding, and future security guarantees. Russia must “save face” so that Putin can try to regain domestic support.  This will end in a ceasefire this year.

  • Importance: The outcome of this conflict will influence NATO cohesion and U.S. credibility as a global security guarantor.


  • Israel-Hamas Conflict:

    • Prediction: Hamas may agree to a ceasefire, but its longevity is uncertain due to persistent challenges in establishing a stable governance structure or securing a comprehensive security agreement with Israel. Without recognition of Israel there is not a long-term peace deal.  Gaza will need to be rebuilt, and a cease fire can help countries provide donor funds to rebuild.  This should be held until Hamas amends its constitution and formally recognizes Israel. The weaker Iran will help Hamas hold a peace deal.  Many Arab Countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq) are in support of Palestinian restructure.  Turkey will try to be the security force in Palestinian areas.  In the short term this will look productive but in the long-term Turkey will cause a problem for effective peace in the region.

    • Importance: This conflict affects U.S. energy security, counterterrorism efforts, and regional alliances.


  • Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions:

    • Prediction: Iran will likely make incremental advancements toward nuclear capability while testing the limits of U.S. and international tolerance.  As I outlined in a previous blog, deterring Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons requires a combination of strict economic sanctions and credible threats of preemptive strikes on key nuclear sites. This approach would pressure Iran to agree to the deployment of rigorous international inspectors to monitor and verify all nuclear facilities.

    • Importance: A nuclear-armed Iran could destabilize the Middle East, trigger a regional arms race, and threaten U.S. allies.


  • China’s Aggression in the South China Sea and Taiwan:

    • Prediction: Increased military posturing, with a higher risk of miscalculation leading to conflict. China’s military modernization and naval expansion will continue at a rapid pace.  China just tested the generation 6 fighter and has advanced AI technology in a cyber capability.  China will continue to flex in the South China Sea as well as make incursions into Taiwan airspace and water territory.  China will decide if their BRICs countries can make a realistic push against the dollar in an economic battle which we will discuss in the Economic section of this assessment.  China is also building a deterrence plan against the U.S. with potential impacts spanning across all MIDLIFE domains.  China will continue to partner with Russia in advanced space systems that can be used as offensive weapons systems.

    • Importance: The security of Taiwan and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea are critical to U.S. economic and strategic interests.  China has capability to directly attack U.S. infrastructure and deploy advanced weapon systems, posing a significant threat to national security.


Domestic Military Use and Readiness

  • U.S. Manufacturing Base and Modernization:

    • Prediction: Continued emphasis on revitalizing domestic defense manufacturing and supply chains to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.  This will include a test of U.S. emergency manufacturing capability for military activities and changing assembly lines into full production manufacturing.

    • Importance: A robust manufacturing base ensures resilience in prolonged conflicts and supports rapid technological innovation.


  • Technological Advancements:

    • Prediction: Accelerated development of AI-driven systems, hypersonic weapons, and quantum computing for defense applications.  The U.S. will move forward on all GEN 6 aircraft and build new plan for the Space race. China is also modernizing their nuclear weapons, planning to double the amount by 2030.  They will also advance the hypersonic capability.

    • Importance: Technological superiority continues to be a key pillar of U.S. military dominance. Maintaining this edge requires an integrated approach, combining advancements in AI, cyber capabilities, and quantum computing. Equally important is the establishment of clear authorities to enable swift, coordinated responses, protecting U.S. companies through both offensive and defensive measures.


  • Recruiting and Training:

  • Prediction: Recruiting challenges are expected to persist, but military services are likely to meet their targets toward the end of the year or early in the next government fiscal year. An intensified focus on warrior training, core military ethos, and the removal of unnecessary distractions will help rebuild a more resilient and effective training environment, attracting the caliber of recruits needed to strengthen and sustain the force.

  • Importance: Maintaining a highly skilled, motivated, and ethically grounded military force is essential for operational readiness.


  • Warrior Ethos and Retention:

    • Prediction: Increased efforts to bolster the warrior ethos through leadership development, emphasis on warfighting, and recognition of service contributions.

    • Importance: A resilient force depends on the morale, discipline, and commitment of its personnel.


Key Foreign Technology Developments

  • China:

    • Prediction: Continued leadership in 5G networks, hypersonic weapon systems, and AI-based warfare platforms.  The top areas China is working on in 2025 are:

  • Unmanned Systems: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is advancing in military robotics and unmanned systems, including both aerial and underwater drones.  Without going into detail in this article I recommend you read my blog in April of 2024 that discusses the U.S. vulnerability to Drones.  It’s important to note that China has developed an extensive AI infrastructure, integrating advanced multi-targeting drone technology. This effort is further supported by a specialized youth program designed to produce thousands of autonomous drones capable of operating in coordinated swarms. These drones are part of a dual-use system, enabling both military and civilian applications for enhanced strategic flexibility.

  • Directed-Energy Weapons: They are developing high-energy lasers, high-power microwave weapons, and railguns.

  • Artificial Intelligence: AI is being integrated into a wide range of military applications, from decision-making processes to autonomous weapons.

  • Quantum Technologies: China is making strides in quantum communications and computing, which could provide significant advantages in secure communications and cryptography.

  • Stealth Technologies: Advances in stealth technology for aircraft are being pursued vigorously.

  • Boron Ramjet Engine: They have developed the world's first boron ramjet engine, capable of carrying weapons at high speeds through both air and water.

  • Advanced Space program for offense and defense capabilities against the U.S. both commercial and military applications.

  • Importance: Monitoring and countering these advancements will require U.S. investment in similar or superior technologies.


  • Russia:

    • Prediction: Incremental advancements in missile technology and electronic warfare capabilities.  The rest of their capabilities mirror China’s, and they are working jointly with them on most of the advancements.

    • Importance: Russia’s technological developments, while constrained by sanctions, could still pose asymmetric threats.


  • Other Actors:

    • Prediction: Non-state actors and smaller nations will increasingly adopt commercial off-the-shelf technologies (e.g., drones, cyber tools) for asymmetric warfare.  We will see attacks by non-state actors in Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

    • Importance: These developments could complicate U.S. military operations in irregular and urban environments.


Recommendations and Strategic Priorities

  1. Strengthen NATO and Indo-Pacific Alliances:

    • Deepen security partnerships to counterbalance adversaries and enhance collective defense capabilities.

  2. Accelerate Defense Modernization:

    • Invest in cutting-edge technologies such as AI, quantum computing, and hypersonic weapons.  Advance Generation 6 capabilities and drastically enhance U.S. space capabilities while beginning a plan to degrade China’s Space capabilities whether overt or covert.

  3. Revitalize Domestic Manufacturing:

    • Expand industrial base capacity to ensure resilience and supply chain security.

  4. Enhance Recruiting and Retention Efforts:

    • Eliminate DEI, re-establish leadership roles, create a more lethal military while keeping whole of government capabilities and cooperation.

  5. Prioritize Strategic Deterrence:

    • Maintain a credible nuclear triad and expand capabilities to deter adversarial aggression.

  6. Address Emerging Threats:

    • Invest in counter-drone technologies, cybersecurity, and electronic warfare to mitigate asymmetric threats.

  7. Use Military to Enhance Border Control:

  • Redesignate Cartel and Transregional Criminal Organizations to destroy those organizations using a variety of methods (host nation actions, intelligence collection, training host nation forces, apply pressure across all agencies)


Conclusion

The Military domain remains a cornerstone of U.S. strategic interests. Addressing foreign threats, advancing technological capabilities, and strengthening domestic readiness are critical to maintaining national security. The MIDLIFE framework provides a structured approach to analyzing and addressing these challenges.


In the next blog, I will explore the Information domain, focusing on cybersecurity, information warfare, and the role of media in shaping perceptions and policies.  Send me an email (tony.thacker@i3solutions.com) to go into detail on any of these issues.  We can discuss of each of these areas and what your organization can do to help with the effort in 2025.

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Why did you omit the role of the Five Eyes? Canada, as one of the five English-speaking intelligence partners, plays a crucial role. However, tensions between the U.S. and Canada have been escalating over economic, trade, tariff, and refugee issues.

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write this to sound better: Hi Dr. Klait, Thank you for reading and responding. To answer in short, I produce the articles to make people aware of different national security topics. Since more people do not read the longer articles initially I use abbreviated version on key topics first. once people/companies read the quick article then different national security entities will ask me to come talk to them in detail or produce additional information papers that go deeper about part of the areas that interested them in the original article. The Five Eyes are important parts of coalitions that are needed for some of the areas in teh paper but they are not exclusive. Each problem set will have different…

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Zero Tolerance for a Nuclear Iran: U.S.-Israel United for Action


Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Washington to secure the Trump administration’s support for striking Iran’s nuclear facilities. His discussions will focus on dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and eliminating its uranium stockpile.


Iran has two options:


Comply with international law by ending its military nuclear program, disposing of its uranium stockpile, and allowing entire UN and IAEA inspections.


Face military strikes targeting nuclear sites, missile bases, and Revolutionary Guard headquarters, weakening the regime and risking collapse in the event of a popular uprising.

Of course, a strong U.S.-Israeli stance will neutralize Iran's threat and send a strong message to China which signed a comprehensive strategic plan with it in late…


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Very good analysis! I agree 100%! The reason this as not happened is that Iran felt that the Biden administration would not have the will to carry out the strikes or allow Israel to carry them out. This changed when they assessed "the will" of the new administration.

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  • I meant the last two questions are rhetorical.

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Dear Tony,

Warm greetings, and thank you for sharing your insightful reflections on critical global security challenges.

I find it difficult to understand why Hamas should amend "its constitution" when it is designated as a terrorist organization. Before even discussing such a matter, one must ask: Where is Palestine first? What are its established borders, parliament, government, and recognized leadership? A legitimate constitution should be drafted by an elected parliament, not by an entity that lacks sovereign status.

Under international law, the authority to draft formal constitutions is typically reserved for recognized states. Hamas, however, is not a sovereign state; it is a designated terrorist organization that has significantly destabilized the region since October 7, 2023. Allowing Hamas to amend a…

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Ibtissam,

You are correct and when comments are made like "if you change your constitution we may begin talks" etc. it is telling every one that Hamas is the recognized government. I agree that we shouldn't talk to Hamas at all about government issues.

Tony

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