As the dust settles on the 2024 US presidential election, the new administration faces numerous global challenges that demand a strategic recalibration of America’s national security priorities. The primary challenges include managing relationships with major competitors like China and Russia, addressing nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, strengthening the Abraham Accords in the Middle East, securing US borders, and ensuring economic resilience in the face of global uncertainties.
In an era marked by great-power competition and shifting alliances, the US must refine its approach to DIMFIL—diplomatic, informational, military, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement efforts—to maintain a secure and stable global position. Here, I explore how the election outcome might reshape US national security, with a focus on strategic competition with China, defense against adversaries, and strengthening both economic and energy security.
1. Recalibrating Great Power Competition: China and Russia
The incoming administration inherits a global order defined by strategic competition, especially with China and Russia. China’s military modernization, ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and assertive presence in the Indo-Pacific pose complex security challenges. The US response requires a holistic approach spanning diplomatic, military, and economic dimensions.
Strengthening DIMFIL Against China
Diplomacy and Alliances: The US can further deepen alliances in the Indo-Pacific through organizations like AUKUS, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), and ASEAN partnerships. Enhanced cooperation with allies such as Japan, South Korea, and India may serve as a counterbalance to China's regional ambitions.
Information and Cybersecurity: China’s influence operations and cyber capabilities require robust US countermeasures. The administration may increase funding for cybersecurity initiatives and implement policies to counter foreign propaganda and misinformation, thereby protecting American infrastructure and public opinion.
Military Posture: As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to modernize, the US could expand its Pacific deterrence initiative, increase naval and air assets in the region, and enhance interoperability with allied forces. Investments in next-generation defense technologies, such as hypersonic weapons and autonomous systems, are expected to continue as well.
Financial Sanctions and Economic Strategy: Addressing China's economic leverage, particularly in critical technology sectors, could involve new restrictions on Chinese companies operating in the US or accessing US intellectual property. Strengthening the domestic semiconductor industry and rare-earth mineral supply chains will reduce dependency on Chinese exports.
Intelligence and Surveillance: Improving intelligence sharing among allies and conducting joint surveillance in contested areas like the South China Sea could provide real-time insights into China’s military movements and reinforce collective security.
Confronting Russia's Influence and Military Actions
Russia’s role as a major energy supplier, particularly to Europe, and its aggressive posturing in Eastern Europe remain primary concerns. The administration may focus on the following:
Military Readiness and NATO Support: Reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank and sustaining US troop deployments in Europe will reassure allies facing the Russian threat. The US could also lead exercises in the Baltic and Black Seas to counter Russia’s presence.
Economic Leverage and Sanctions: Sanctions targeting Russian oligarchs and sectors critical to Moscow’s economy, such as energy and finance, can help limit Russia’s geopolitical influence. Additionally, further investment in alternative energy for European allies would reduce their reliance on Russian gas. With the energy policy expected under President-elect Trump, European leaders may increasingly consider purchasing US oil and natural gas. This shift could help reduce Europe’s reliance on Eastern oil sources, potentially limiting Russia's political and military leverage over European countries.
Strengthening Cyber and Hybrid Warfare Defenses: Since Russia has a well-documented history of cyber incursions, further collaboration with European allies on cybersecurity and hybrid warfare readiness is essential.
2. Addressing North Korea and Iran’s Nuclear Threats
The election may also reshape US strategies to contain the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, two critical issues that directly threaten global stability.
North Korea
Diplomacy with Pressure: North Korea’s nuclear program presents an enduring challenge. The US may explore renewed diplomatic talks, likely with a stance that emphasizes denuclearization in exchange for limited economic relief, while maintaining military readiness to counter any provocations.
Regional Defense Systems: Expanding the reach of missile defense systems, such as THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), across East Asia can further protect allies like South Korea and Japan.
Iran and Middle Eastern Stability
Nuclear Containment: Preventing Iran from achieving nuclear weapons capability remains a top priority. The US might seek to reinstate a nuclear agreement, with stricter conditions of inspections, compliance mechanisms, alongside diplomatic talks with regional players. In addition, the 2019 measures of strict sanction toward Iran did have dramatic affect and would push to negotiation table.
Supporting the Abraham Accords: Expanding and solidifying the Abraham Accords, which facilitate cooperation between Israel and several Arab nations, could stabilize the region and counterbalance Iranian influence. Economic and security partnerships fostered through these agreements might reduce conflicts and promote US interests.
3. Border Security and Domestic Stability
Domestic stability plays a significant role in national security, and the US southern border remains a critical focus.
Enhanced Border Security Measures: The administration may implement advanced surveillance technologies, improve physical barriers, and increase the Border Patrol’s capabilities. Such measures could reduce illegal immigration and drug trafficking, which are tied to national security concerns.
Addressing the Root Causes of Migration: Tackling migration at its source by supporting economic development and stability in Central America may alleviate migration pressures, allowing US border resources to focus on immediate threats. This will also compete against the influence of China in the Western Hemisphere. I speak in detail about moving logistics from China to Central America in previous blogs.
4. Economic Security and Strengthening Energy Independence
The global energy landscape has evolved in recent years, making energy independence and economic resilience key components of national security. A robust US energy policy can bolster European energy security, limit reliance on adversarial nations, and support global economic stability.
Domestic Energy Production and Export Potential: Increasing US oil and natural gas production—particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports—can support European allies in reducing dependence on Russian energy supplies. Such an approach would also enhance US influence over global energy prices.
Economic Resilience and Supply Chain Security: Ensuring secure supply chains for essential goods, from medical supplies to semiconductor components, remains vital. The US may continue to incentivize onshore production and partner with allies to diversify supply sources.
5. Improved Position Against Great Power Competitors
The collective impact of these national security and policy changes will likely improve the US’s position against its great power competitors through a comprehensive DIMFIL approach.
Diplomatic Strength: By reinforcing alliances and diplomatic ties, the US can project a unified front that deters aggression from China, Russia, and other competitors.
Military Modernization and Readiness: Investment in advanced military technologies and joint exercises with allies will deter adversarial actions and maintain a favorable balance of power.
Economic and Energy Leverage: A strong economy, coupled with energy independence, allows the US to counteract economic pressures from competitors and provide security assurances to allies.
Intelligence and Cyber Defense: With improved intelligence-sharing networks and robust cybersecurity measures, the US can detect and counter adversarial threats more effectively.
Conclusion
The 2024 US presidential election sets the stage for a renewed national security agenda that will shape America’s role on the global stage. From countering great-power competition with China and Russia to addressing nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, the new administration’s approach will likely focus on strengthening alliances, securing economic and energy resilience, and upholding a robust defense posture. The ability to leverage policy and match with deterrence will be a master game that will depend on the foreign competitor to believe US has the “will”, the “Capability”, and finally the political support that enables real deterrence to be achieved.
In a rapidly changing world, a coherent strategy grounded in DIMFIL principles will enable the US to address multifaceted security challenges and reinforce its leadership role. Success in these areas will not only protect American interests but also contribute to global stability, fostering an environment where peace and prosperity can flourish. i3solutions offers expert guidance on DoD and National Security nominations and is well-prepared to engage in discussions on the topics outlined in this blog. We can collaborate with your organization to develop a comprehensive and actionable plan tailored to your needs. For more information, contact me at tony.thacker@i3solutions.com.
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