
The United States stands at a critical juncture as it faces an array of challenges over the next 12 months. The 2024 election, rising national debt, and potential threats from foreign adversaries pose significant risks. Additionally, Social Security, Medicare, and national defense require policy decisions during the next 12 months to prevent the 8-year disaster that is projected on the current course. This analysis delves into the economic and geopolitical landscape, examining the impact on domestic and international fronts and suggesting strategies to protect American interests and national security.
In February, I discussed this year’s challenges with key directors and staff members in several government agencies, covering many of the topics I am about to delve into. Some of these staff members were provided with a draft of this blog for review and comment in late June 2024. Since then, several of its predictions have already come to fruition, which will be noted throughout the blog.
Economic Outlook and Domestic Challenges
Election Uncertainty and Market Volatility
The 2024 election is expected to introduce considerable uncertainty, often leading to market volatility. Historically, elections can lead to fluctuations in stock markets, investor sentiment, and economic policy directions. Businesses may delay investments, and consumers might hold back on spending, contributing to economic slowdown. i3CA predicted the changing political environment and gave 70/30 odds that President Biden would not be the candidate moving to the presidential election on November 5th.
During this election cycle there are key differences in policies between the Democrat and Republican parties in areas which will affect business spending and investment, as well as debt and taxes. Some of these are:
Climate/green new deal initiatives versus loosening regulations for oil exploration and using an approach that includes mining, coal, fossil fuels, nuclear and other new energy sources.
Immigration for path to citizenship versus return illegal immigrants to country of origin while pushing more legal immigration.
Preventing Iran, Russia, China, North Korea and BRICS from working together versus direct competition using an economic pressure approach tied to other areas of the “DIME” (Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic).
These are just a few examples that are diametrically opposed to each other, showcasing distinct differences in their impact on economic markets both overseas and in the US. The election will be a major factor in determining economic and US policy issues for the next decade. To address these issues through major legislation, it will be necessary to combine effective policy measures with the ability to secure majority support from legislators. Given the current political climate, it is likely that such legislation will be passed not through bipartisan cooperation, but through the mandate of a single-party government.
The election will bring together all of the different areas discussed in this blog. i3CA will be helping some businesses wade through the differences and what the 2nd and 3rd order of effects might be for their sector prior to and throughout the election process.
Rising National Debt
The US national debt continues to climb, exacerbated by pandemic-related spending and ongoing fiscal policies. This growing debt burden could lead to higher interest rates as the government competes for capital, crowding out private investment and potentially stunting economic growth. The cost of servicing the debt may also divert funds from essential programs like Social Security, Medicare, and national defense.
This year the US government collected approx. $1.89B from individual taxes. With our national debt approaching $35 trillion, we will be paying nearly $1 trillion annually in interest payments alone. Read that again and let it sink in. We have increased the quarterly interest on our debt by over $65 billion. To put this in perspective, the annual interest payments on the national debt now exceed the entire Department of Defense budget. And this amount continues to grow.
Impact on Social Security and Medicare
Social Security and Medicare are already under financial strain. The rising debt and potential economic downturn could force policymakers to consider reforms, such as increasing the retirement age, modifying benefits, or altering tax policies. These changes could impact millions of Americans who rely on these programs for their well-being. There are some unique options that might be considered, such as a national gas tax that allocates 15 cents per gallon—5 cents dedicated to Social Security and 10 cents to paying off the national debt. Other potential solutions are also available and should be discussed to avert the imminent crises facing Social Security and Medicare.
National Defense Budget Constraints
As fiscal pressures mount, the national defense budget may face cuts or reallocation. Reduced funding could affect military readiness, modernization programs, and overall defense capabilities at a time when international threats are intensifying. As the US faces Great Power Competition (GPC), reducing capabilities will negatively impact the nation's posture and ability to defend against rising threats. While pursuing cost-effectiveness in the Department of Defense, we must ensure that efforts to reduce national debt do not diminish DOD capabilities without a thorough risk analysis.
Geopolitical Threats and Foreign Competitors
China
China's expanding influence in Africa and Central America is part of its broader strategy to assert global dominance. This includes significant investments in infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, which increases Beijing's geopolitical leverage. Additionally, China's assertiveness in the South China Sea and its stance on Taiwan pose direct challenges to US interests and regional stability. Additionally, cyber threats and cooperation between Russia, Iran, and North Korea strengthen their position along with BRIC countries. We should be cautious that domestic unrest in the US might provide China with an opportunity to exert pressure on Taiwan during the election period.

Russia
Russia's actions in Europe, including its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and interference in other countries' internal affairs, continue to destabilize the region. Moscow's cyber warfare capabilities and disinformation campaigns present substantial threats to both the US and its European allies. Ukraine will want to push hard against Russia when they get their F16s to show NATO and the West that they can drive Russia out of Ukraine before the winter sets in order to secure additional funding in the spring for the next fighting season.
Iran
Iran's regional ambitions and support for proxy groups in the Middle East threaten stability. Tehran's potential nuclear capabilities and its influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen remain focal points of concern for US national security. Lebanese Hezbollah may escalate depending on what messages are being sent by the two president candidates.
Domestic Unrest and Terrorist Threats
Civil Unrest
The US may experience civil unrest driven by groups such as Antifa, environmental activists, and other organizations. Social and political divisions, economic disparities, and contentious policy debates can fuel protests and clashes, potentially leading to instability.

Over the next 12 months, the US is aware of groups attempting to incite racial tensions, medical emergencies (such as bird flu), and other disruptive activities. These actions may be intended to influence election outcomes but could also have long-term effects and unintended consequences, as we witnessed with COVID.
Terrorist Threats
The threat of terrorist attacks from both domestic and international actors remains high. Organizations like ISIS and Al-Qaeda continue to target the US and its allies, while homegrown violent extremists also pose significant risks. Enhanced security measures and intelligence efforts are crucial to mitigate these threats. At the time of publishing this blog, there has been an attempted assassination against President Trump. This incident was one of the topics discussed in the draft concerning political security issues.
The threat extends beyond attacks on officials to include potential threats in Europe and the US, similar to those carried out by ISIS-K in Russia. This risk is heightened by vulnerabilities at the Southern Border, which has allowed known terrorists and operational sleeper cells to enter the US. Additionally, over the next 12 months, there is likely to be a cyber threat targeting key US infrastructure, disguised to avoid attribution to any specific “state actor”.
Additionally, there are ongoing terrorist threats expected in the US over the next 12 months, as well as during the Olympic Games in Paris. These threats underscore the need for heightened vigilance and robust security measures in both locations.
Strategies to Protect American Interests
Strengthen Economic Resilience
Fiscal Responsibility: Implement policies to manage and reduce the national debt without compromising essential services. This includes tax reforms, spending cuts, and measures to boost economic growth.
Diversified Economy: Encourage innovation and diversification in key sectors such as technology, energy, and manufacturing to reduce dependency on volatile industries.
Enhance National Defense
Modernization: Invest in modernizing the military to address emerging threats, including cyber warfare, space security, and advanced weaponry.
Alliances: Strengthen alliances with NATO, Middle East partners, Africa, and other international partners to ensure collective security and deter adversaries.
Address Domestic Unrest and Terrorism
Community Engagement: Foster community engagement and address underlying social issues to reduce the appeal of extremist ideologies and minimize civil unrest.
Intelligence and Security: Enhance intelligence capabilities and interagency cooperation to detect and prevent terrorist activities, ensuring robust homeland security.
Conclusion
The next 12 months will be a period of significant challenges and opportunities for the United States. By adopting a comprehensive and proactive approach to economic management, national defense, and social stability, America can navigate these turbulent times and emerge stronger on the other side. Effective leadership, strategic planning, and a commitment to national unity will be crucial in safeguarding the nation's interests at home and abroad. Finally, we must consider the potential for cyber-attacks around election time that could disrupt our system of governance and stability, causing widespread chaos.
i3CA will continue to assist both commercial and government entities in planning, preventing, deterring, and preempting potential threats during this period. If you are interested in developing a plan or discussing strategies, please email me at tony.thacker@i3solutions.com.
Spot on as usual!